|
Identification and Structural Analysis of War-Induced Risks in Insurance Companies: Actuarial and Managerial Implications
|
Fatemeh Atatalab *    , Mahboubeh Aalaei |
| Department of Actuarial Science, Faculty of Mathematical Science, Shahid Beheshti University |
|
|
Abstract: (24 Views) |
| War represents one of the most severe exogenous shocks to the insurance industry; its impact extends beyond increased claims to encompass disruptions in economic and operational variables, thereby affecting pricing, technical provisions, solvency, liquidity, reinsurance, asset management, and the business continuity of insurance companies. This research was conducted to identify and structurally analyze war-induced risks in insurance companies and to elucidate their actuarial and managerial implications. The study is exploratory and follows a hybrid research design, utilizing the Delphi and DEMATEL methods to identify and structure the risks. In the first stage, 18 potential risks were extracted from the research literature and expert opinions; subsequently, through the Delphi process, 16 risks were confirmed as final risks, while 2 risks were excluded based on statistical indices. The DEMATEL results revealed that exchange rate volatility, claim inflation, reinsurance constraints, and the increase in insurance losses are categorized as causal and influential risks, whereas declining solvency, technical reserve deficits, liquidity risk, and reputational risk play the role of ultimate consequences. Furthermore, the actuarial and managerial implications of the confirmed risks were discussed in terms of stress testing, scenario analysis, assumption review, and reserve valuation. Overall, the findings indicate that effectively confronting war shocks necessitates a more proactive role for actuaries in strategic risk analysis, scenario design, and supporting managerial and regulatory decision-making. |
|
| Keywords: Actuarial, Solvency, War, Risk Management |
|
|
Full-Text [PDF 1131 kb]
(12 Downloads)
|
|
Type of Study: Research |
Subject:
Special
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Send email to the article author |
|
|
|
| Add your comments about this article |
|
|
|
