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Since household welfare, production and investment is under influence of inflation so in order to set out plans to subdue inflation and to gain price stability it is crucial to detect inflation causes. This paper firstly presents the theoretical principals and reviews different studies then, Using statistical analysis of 2010-2012 period as well as structural VAR model, tries to inspect the effects of inflation causes. Based on the results, Iran’s inflation especially during 2010-2012 has not occurred just due to liquidity factor and other factors such as price reform within subsidies targeting plan and the exchange rate increase has had very important roles. The long run estimation results of model show that a ten percent increase in the volume of money, exchange rates and product price index would lead to an about 3.8, 3.5, 2.7 percent increase in the price level respectively. Furthermore, the results also show that GDP has no significant effect on the price level in the long-run reflecting that Phillips curve is would be vertical.

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Since the way by which the 2nd phase of Subsidies Targeting Plan is to be implemented, the levels of liberalization of the prices of energy carriers and the shares of different sectors in the total subsidies are not clear yet, and also due to the lack of up-to-date macroeconomic statistics required to study the immediate and short-run effects of the plan on Iranian tax revenues, in this article we have employed Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR) to answer the research question. At the same time, for the purpose of analyzing the dynamic interactional effects of the shocks created, we have resorted to the Forecast Error Variance Decomposition Functions (FECDs), as well as the Impulse Response Functions methods for the period 1987-2012. The results obtained from the Impulse Response Functions Method indicate that in general, the elimination or decrease of subsidies (i.e. targeting subsidies) would lead to a decrease in tax revenues. Moreover, as for the tax sub-parts, the results of the model show that the direct taxes in fixed prices would be decreased upon the implementation of the Plan. On the other hand, the effect of a decrease in the amount of subsidies paid has led to an increase in the indirect taxes as equal to one unit of standard deviation in the first period while it is assumed to result in a decrease of indirect taxes in the second period and is expected to be eventually neutralized in subsequent periods

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TThe situation, in which the general level of the prices increases improperly and continuously, is called inflationary situation. Inflation always has been known as an economical problem and some remedies have been proposed to control it. One of the solutions is production. Using the Auto regression Model (VAR) this article aims to evaluate the mutual relation of the inflation rate and production gap in Iran's Economy during (1971-2011). Finding new remedies, the policy-makers and economic programmer's would be able to control the inflation with comprehensive programs and goals. The results of the study show that the root of inflation in Iran is not merely a monetary relationship. Results indicate that of momentary interaction of the relationship of gross domestic production gap has been decreased at the beginning and then has been increased at the long-term but regarding the variance Analysis, as the time passes the trend tends to increase. The results also show that not only the monetary policies will not be able to control the inflation rate but also the production should be considered at the real section of Economy.

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In recent decades, financial stability as an economic system object is taken into consideration in the policy making more than ever before. The Central banks and most financial institutions, including IMF, World Bank and Bank of International Settlements, have published numerous reports about financial stability and the considerable part of their research activities addresses to study in this field. A simple definition, financial stability is a state that the system is not in a critical condition. Various factors affect to financial stability that among them macroeconomic variables (inflation, GDP, exchange rate) and banks’ special conditions (the profitability of banks, the ratio of cost to the income ratio of loans to assets of banks) are the most important. The financial stability has a positive effect on financial institutions and banks' performance and can improve the efficiency of their activities. This paper aims to compute the financial stability indexes in Iranian banks and compare their calculated indexes among them. The results show that the financial stability of the selected banks is different and financial stability indexes in the private and public banks are different.

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This study examines the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty of producers and consumers using a dynamic model. For this purpose, the monthly producer and consumer price index data is used for the period of 1991 to 2016. Findings of several studies which examine the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty with using GARCH models show that the uncertainty of inflation is as one of the factors influencing inflation. In this study, I use the SVM model, which presents a more accurate estimation of uncertainty than the GARCH model. The Granger causality and VAR model was used to analyze the shocks and impulse response function. The results show that there are positive interactions between inflation and inflation uncertainty between producer and consumer indexes. So in order to inflation control policies be more effective, policymakers should set some control policies on the producer inflation

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The main objective of this research is to study the simultaneous effects of company-specific characteristics as well as macroeconomic variables on the capital structure of listed companies in Tehran stock exchange market for the periods of 2007 to 2014. For Consideration of Company-Specific Characteristics in this paper, we use the profitability ratios, the dividend payout, and stock price performance ratios. Moreover, variables such as GDP growth, exchange rate, inflation, interest rate and the ratio of banks credit as a percentage of GDP are given as macroeconomic variables. The research findings reflect that the profitability and dividend payout ratios impact capital structure throughout the industry. Moreover, GDP growth and bank credits (as percentage of GDP) influence the capital structure across the industry. Also, the results indicate that the effects of Company-Specific variables and macroeconomic variables on the capital structure vary across the industries.
 

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International interdependence between countries financial and real sectors has considerably increased since the middle of the twentieth century. Although increased economic integration has helped to improve the global economic performance, it has increased the degree of vulnerability to external shocks. Therefore, one of the most important challenges facing government is policy recommendations on how to reduce economic vulnerability to external shocks. This paper estimates the inflationary vulnerability for 34 developed and developing countries during the period 1988-2013, and then uses the methods of analysis of variance and correlation coefficient to identify factors related to the inflation vulnerability. The results indicate that the inflationary vulnerability to imported inflation is related to the manufacturing share of value-added, the degree of openness, and the foods import and export. The markets regulations, especially the credit market, and financial development have a significant relationship with inflationary vulnerability to foods and oil shocks. In addition, the use of sustainable energies has a significant relationship with the inflationary vulnerability to oil shocks.

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The housing sector is one of the most important economic sectors in terms of household expenditure and GDP and its role in changing macroeconomic index such as economic growth and employment. Given the importance of the housing sector in the economy and there is a lot of volatility in this sector, in this study, the factors affecting the price of housing has been Including stock indices, liquidity, the price of gold and shocks caused by the housing market countries, United Arabic Emirates, Turkey, Greece and Cyprus will be discussed. Also, the convergence of housing prices between Iran and selected countries will be evaluated. To analyze the effect of shocks from Structural Vector Auto Regressive and housing price index for the convergence Iran and selected countries Johansson model is used by quarterly data from 2007 to 2015. Data is extracted from the stock exchange database of Iran, Central Bank of selected countries. The results that show the housing shocks in selected countries don't impact on the price of housing; Liquidity shocks is effective and stock index shocks and gold prices have no effect on Iran's House Price Index. The share of housing prices in selected countries fluctuations of housing prices forecast error in the short-term is up, but in the long run is reduced. Controlling the volume of liquidity and orienting towards production are effective policies in the short term to stabilize housing prices. The findings also confirmed the convergence relationship between Iran and selected countries in the long-term housing price index. This reflects the contagion of the crisis in the housing market of the countries. Therefore, it is necessary to rebuild the housing market against crises.

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The main objective of this study is to answer the question, which among the economic and social, strategic, political and military factors and Rents of natural resources, which one has played an important role in determining the defense budget of Iran during 1959-2015? For this purpose, have been used the 18 variables that effect on the defense budget contribution of GDP (defense burden index) according to theoretical foundations, empirical studies and structure of Iran. Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) approach is used, due to convenience feature to consider the uncertainty assumption of model. With estimation of 40000 regressions and Bayesian averaging of coefficients, robust determinants of defense burden are specified. The results show that robust determinants of the defense budget in Iran were as follows: average the defense burden of world countries, average the defense burden of Middle East countries, share of oil and gas revenues from GDP, imposed war, lag of defense burden and defense burden of Israel. Based on these results can say that the more robust determinants of defense budget in Iran, were strategic and economic variables do not play a role in defining the defense budget.

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In addition to being contagious to humans and the devastating effects on their health, the outbreak of the corona pandemic has also had contagious effects on the global economy; So that the relationship between different markets in this period has also affected. In this paper, the relationship between commodity markets, capital, money, exchange rates, gold and energy is examined and for this purpose, consumer price index, total stock index, liquidity volume, exchange rate, Bahar Azadi coin price and OPEC oil prices during the period 1386-1: 1399: 09 were used as widely used indicators of these markets. To investigate the qualitative effect of corona pandemic, the virtual variable corona during the period 1398: 11 to 1399: 09 is used. For modeling, SVAR approach was used and finally, to ensure the results of estimation, two operations of instantaneous reaction functions and analysis of variance were performed.

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The misery index is an economic indicator that defined by economist Arthur Okun in the late of decade 1970. This index, determine of total inflation and unemployment rates and express in terms of percent. High misery index, end in economic and public troubles. Because have increased both inflation and unemployment rates. In other words, the Misery index can indicate the state of stagflation in society. Thus, this study purpose, investigated the effective factors on misery index in selected provinces of the country (Markazi, Hamedan, Kermanshah, Kordestan and Lorestan) between years 2008-2018. Was estimated the effect of gross domestic product, commerce balance and tax independent variables and economic sanctions dummy variable on misery index dependent variable in a logarithmic model, the using of Eviews software and GMM Panel method. For this purpose, the relevant data were collected from the statistics center of Iran and the economic deputies of economic and financial affairs directorate general of mentioned province and after of statistical tests, determined commerce balance, gross domestic product and economic sanctions variables have significant and positive impact and tax variable has significant and negative impact on misery index.

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Monetary and credit policies, however, are widely accepted by economists and policymakers as a means of stabilizing the real sector of the economy and achieving sustainable economic growth. However, macroeconomic shocks, in turn, affect the stability of the banking system and real sectors of the economy, including the housing market. Therefore, the study of the impact of macroeconomic shocks on the stability of the banking system and the housing market, requires evaluation and analysis of these channels in the mechanism of shock transmission. Therefore, the present article evaluates the impact of macroeconomic shocks in Iran on banking stability and the housing market with the FAVAR approach during the period 1991-1400. The results show that, in terms of the period of impact, the capital market channel and exchange rate with a deviation of limits and the capital market channel with 0.4. Percentage deviation from the mean of the minimum and maximum effect, respectively, and in terms of the duration of the effect, the housing channel and the banking channel act almost similarly.
 

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One of the most important factors affecting the creation of liquidity in Iran's banking network is the capital adequacy ratio. Based on this, the present study aims to investigate the role of capital adequacy requirements on money creation in the banking system based on Bal III committee as well as the effects of other variables such as inflation, exchange rate, non-performing loans, and profitability of the banking network in Iran in the period of 2010:1-2021:1 with seasonal frequency using structural vector autoregression model. The results show that a positive shock to inflation, exchange rate, and profitability of banks increase money creation. But, a positive shock to capital adequacy ratio and non-performing loans has not had a significant effect on money creation. This finding indicates that the banking system has practically not reacted to changes in capital adequacy due to the lack of executive guarantee in applying the capital adequacy requirements. And as a result, capital adequacy requirements have not been able to play their role in restricting money creation. Also, the results show that the creation of bank money in Iran is mainly influenced by macro-level variables so that inflation and exchange rate respectively played the most important role in explaining the changes in the creation of bank money.

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Dollarization is one of the issues that occurs to maintain the purchasing power of economic units in a country during sudden exchange rate shocks, and it can affect all markets, especially the stock market. The purpose of this article is to use the Lag-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (LA-VAR) model to evaluate the dynamics of Granger causality relationships between the exchange rate, partial dollarization and stock market in Iran's economy. For this aim, monthly data was used for the period from March 2009 to November 2022. The findings of the Recursive Evolution (RE), Revolving Window (RO) and Forward Expansion (FE) algorithms showed that there was no causal relationship between the exchange rate and the stock market return. Only in the period of April 2017 to November 2019, there has been the bidirectional causality between the exchange rate and stock market return, and after that, the causality direction has been from the exchange rate to stock market return. Also, the exchange rate and dollarization causality results indicated that the exchange rate was the Granger causality of dollarization from January 2012 until November 2013, after which the exchange rate has increased from 18000 IRR to 30000 IRR and the index of dollarization increased from 0.3 to 0.5. On the other hand, in most of the period from 2018 to the fall of 2020, the exchange rate has been the dollarization Granger causality. So, according to the shocks source, an appropriate policy should be considered for the exchange rate or the dollarization possibility.