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Economic losses due to natural gas imbalance
in manufacturing industries in Mazandaran Province
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Saeed Rasekhi *    , Roya Saedi , Yaser Jafari Khorshidiya |
| Department of Energy Economics, University of Mazandaran |
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Abstract: (9 Views) |
| This research examines the economic impacts of natural gas imbalances on the manufacturing industries of Mazandaran Province during the period 2018–2022 (1397–1401 SH). The results indicate that welfare losses resulting from these imbalances are increasing non-linearly. Among these, the non-metallic mineral products and food and beverage industries have suffered the highest welfare losses, while the food industry has been the most vulnerable sector in terms of lost value-added. Findings reveal that the opportunity cost of gas supply restrictions has risen sharply; specifically, the value of each lost cubic meter of gas—based on both welfare loss and lost value-added approaches—showed significant growth over this five-year period. Long-term analysis using the ARDL model also shows a high error correction coefficient (-0.71), reflecting low resilience and the severe fragility of the province’s economy against energy shocks. Ultimately, this study emphasizes that the continuation of the current situation will exacerbate industrial risks. Therefore, a transition from reactive crisis management toward building industrial resilience is essential. It is recommended that energy governance be reformed to ensure a more optimal distribution of natural gas among industries during emergencies to prevent further economic losses. |
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| Keywords: Natural Gas Imbalance, Economic Loss, Manufacturing Industries, Mazandaran Province |
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Full-Text [PDF 1066 kb]
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Type of Study: Research |
Subject:
Special
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