2024-03-29T15:29:40+03:30
http://qjfep.ir/browse.php?mag_id=11&slc_lang=fa&sid=1
11-292
2024-03-29
10.1002
Quarterly Journal of Fiscal and Economic Policies
qjfep
2345-3435
2345-3435
10.61186/qjfep
2016
3
11
A Study of the Effect of Uncertainty from Fluctuations of Economics Quantity on Private-Sector Investment in Iran
vida
varahrami
vida.varahrani@gmail.com
masoud
abdollahi
masoud.abdollahi1989@gmail.com
Iran economy is a dependent economy on exogenous factor of oil revenues and as Iran economy is governmental condition, the production quantity depends on this exogenous factor and always has lots of fluctuations. As lack of fluctuation in production quantity and its continuum growth form the increase in profitability expectation of private investment, this article reviews the effective factors on private investment focusing on fluctuation of real quantity of economy using time-series statics between 1966 and 2011. At first by the Generalized Auto-regressive Conditional Heteroskedastic (GARCH) fluctuation of the quantity of economy is calculated then, by using the Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL), model is calculated. The results reveal that in long term and short term fluctuations of country’s production have a negative effect on private section’s investment. Reviewing of other factors shows that private investment has a positive relation with both gross domestic product and production capacity and also has negative relation with exchange rate and long term deposits.
Governmental Condition Economy
Oil Revenues
Private Investment
ARDL Model
GARCH Model.
2016
1
01
7
36
http://qjfep.ir/article-1-292-en.pdf
11-323
2024-03-29
10.1002
Quarterly Journal of Fiscal and Economic Policies
qjfep
2345-3435
2345-3435
10.61186/qjfep
2016
3
11
The Role and Function of Shadow Monetary Policy Committee
Ilnaz
Ebrahimi
ilnazebrahimi@yahoo.com
Maryam
Hematy
hematy.maryam@yahoo.com
Shadow Monetary Policy Committee is an independent institute that includes monetary experts. This institute evaluates central bank policies and makes some suggestions about appropriate changes in these policies to achieve monetary policy targets. It has the capacity to create some communication channels between experts and policy makers and also informs them about advantages and weaknesses of monetary and fiscal policies. This committee can also encourage policy makers to better communicate with society and be responsible about the adopted policies. In this paper, we pay attention to the restrictions of the Monetary and Credit Council (MCC) as one of the pillars of central bank. Highlighting the advantages of Shadow Monetary Policy Committee, we emphasis on its role in improvement of policy making. We also survey different dimensions of organizing such a committee like its targets, functions, members’ combination, frequency of meetings and its communication with the media. One of the most important functions of organizing such a committee is the improvement of monetary decisions quality utilizing the scientific and experiential analyses. The greatest challenge of organizing this committee is its fiscal independence from monetary and fiscal authorities. This can be a tough job because many scientific and research centers in Iran finance their activities through public funds
Shadow Monetary Policy Committee
Communication Policy
Responsibility
Monetary and Credit Council
2016
1
01
37
62
http://qjfep.ir/article-1-323-en.pdf
11-341
2024-03-29
10.1002
Quarterly Journal of Fiscal and Economic Policies
qjfep
2345-3435
2345-3435
10.61186/qjfep
2016
3
11
The Effect of Demographic Changes on Government Social Expenditure and Life Cycle Expenditure in Iran Economy
اebrahim.rezaei@gmail.com
This paper investigates the impact of demographic changes on government social expenditure on one hand, and private life cycle expenditure components inequalities, on the other.The main questions here are to consider what affect government expenditure as well as private life cycle expenditureswhich can be affected by demographic factors. Therefore, to reply these questions, demographic changes as a composite index has been identified then, based on theoretical debate, the main demographic-related component of government expenditure (health and care expenditure) has been regressed on mentioned index and other explanatory variables. Result shows that over time and among age groups, large and increasing share of health and care budget devote to older generations. Also, analyzing the other question it has been revealed that life cycle components have hump-shape against age groups and while some of them, health and long term care for instance, are related to demographic factors, with increasing mean and dispersion between age groupsin long time, the others such as energy consumption are independent from demographic changes.
Demographic changes
Government Social Expenditure
Life-Cycle Expenditure.
2016
1
01
62
84
http://qjfep.ir/article-1-341-en.pdf
Quarterly Journal of Fiscal and Economic Policies
qjfep
2345-3435
2345-3435
10.61186/qjfep
2016
3
11
The Asymmetric Effect of Oil Price Shock on Stock Market: Evidence from Oil Exporting Countries
Mohamad
Mirhashemi Dehnavi
mohamadmirhashemi.88@gmail.com
This paper performs an empirical investigation into the relationship between oil price and stock market price for five countries (Kuwait, Oman, UAE, Qatar and Iran) using panel unit root test, panel co-integration test and Breusch-Pagan cross-section dependency test. For this aim, daily data for oil price, gold price, exchange rate and stock exchange index from countries since January 2008 to July 2012 have been used. Breusch-Pagan LM test for cross-sectional dependency and SUR method is used in our sample. The empirical findings show the asymmetric effect of oil price shock on stock market in oil exporting countries.
Asymmetric Effect of Oil Price Shock
Oil Exporting Stock Market
Cross-Sectional Dependency
Seemingly Unrelated Regression.
2016
1
01
85
108
http://qjfep.ir/article-1-80-en.pdf
Quarterly Journal of Fiscal and Economic Policies
qjfep
2345-3435
2345-3435
10.61186/qjfep
2016
3
11
A Survey of the Effective Variables on Share Selection in Tehran Stock Exchange, on the base of Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP)
Brh313@gmail.c
Yb_nahandi@yahoo.com
pourghaffar@gmail.com
The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the effective factors of share selection in 84 companies of Tehran Exchange Stock Market over the years 2006-2010. For this aim, the factor analysis and analytical hierarchy process (AHP) methods have been used for determining and ranking of effective variables. The empirical results of this paper indicate that earnings trend, dividend earning trend, dividend per share, earning per share ratio, profit margin‚ operating income ratio to sale, rate of equity return ratio‚ rate of return assets are the main determinants of share selection in the companies of Tehran Exchange Stock Market. Moreover, there is a positive and significant relationship between these variables and the rate of return in 84 companies of Tehran Exchange Stock Market.
Stock Selection
Stock Exchange‚ Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP)
Stock Return.
2016
1
01
109
132
http://qjfep.ir/article-1-73-en.pdf
11-264
2024-03-29
10.1002
Quarterly Journal of Fiscal and Economic Policies
qjfep
2345-3435
2345-3435
10.61186/qjfep
2016
3
11
Identifying and Prioritizing Financing Methods in Holding Companies Holding companies are common organizational structures in many countries. These companies are main players in new economics. The financing plans along with controlling financial risk are managers’ concerns in multi business companies. Internal capital markets and external financing through bank dept are two main methods for financing operations in holding companies. In this research, after introducing Internal Capital Markets as a new approach in financing system of holding companies, by review literature and interview with experts, wedetermine the relations between criteria with dematel, and then use analytical network process to prioritize criteria and financing methods. The results show that holding companies\' managers prefer using internal capital markets, because of its results in decreasing financial risk and cost of capital.Holding companies are common organizational structures in many countries. These compan
saeed379@yahoo.com
meraei68@yahoo.com
Holding companies are common organizational structures in many countries. These companies are main players in new economics. The financing plans along with controlling financial risk are managers’ concerns in multi business companies. Internal capital markets and external financing through bank dept are two main methods for financing operations in holding companies. In this research, after introducing Internal Capital Markets as a new approach in financing system of holding companies, by review literature and interview with experts, wedetermine the relations between criteria with dematel, and then use analytical network process to prioritize criteria and financing methods. The results show that holding companies;#39 managers prefer using internal capital markets, because of its results in decreasing financial risk and cost of capital.
: Holding
Financing
Internal Capital Markets
Dematel
Analytical Network Process.
2016
1
01
133
154
http://qjfep.ir/article-1-264-en.pdf
11-153
2024-03-29
10.1002
Quarterly Journal of Fiscal and Economic Policies
qjfep
2345-3435
2345-3435
10.61186/qjfep
2016
3
11
A Survey of Affecting Factors on the Countries Competitiveness with Emphasis on Iran Economy
Mohammad_tash@eco.usb.ac.ir
kamran_mahmod@pgs.usb.ac.ir
hadiseh12@yahoo.com
This study investigates the performance components of competitiveness in the world market, with the emphasis on Iran economy. We used 168 countries data and information included underdeveloped, developing and developed countries during the years of 2011- 2014. The results indicate that the competitiveness parameters have a positive and significant effect on the indicator we have studied. According to the World Economic Forum, Annual Report 2013-2014 states that Switzerland, Singapore, Finland, Germany, the United States, Sweden, Hong Kong, the Netherlands, Japan and the UK are top 10 competitive economies in the world. In this regard, the best ranking of the indicators for the Iran is the market size with the rank of 19 and the value of this index is 5.14, which indicates the capacity and potential of Iran.
Competitiveness
Performance
Competitiveness Parameters
Efficiency.
2016
1
01
155
188
http://qjfep.ir/article-1-153-en.pdf