@article{ author = {SHIRAZI, HOMAYOUN and NASROLLAHI, KHADIJH}, title = {Monetary Models and Exchange Rate Forecast in Iran: From Theory to Empirical Evidences}, abstract ={Predictability of the exchange rate is one of the puzzles in international economics studies. During the past decades, it has been assumed that the economic models (especially monetary models) are the main instruments for the exchange rate forecasts. The poor performance of these models in forecasting exchange rate in addition to the weak support of empirical studies caused serious doubts arise in the usefulness of the monetary models. The purpose of this study is to forecast Iranian exchange rate using some monetary models and comparing the estimated results with Random Walk model. First, the considered monetary models have been estimated by VECM method for 1973-2008. Then, the exchange rate has been forecasted with the data during 2009-2011.The results show that comparing to other monetary models, Random Walk could forecast the exchange rate more accurately. In addition, compared to Frankel-Bilson, Frankel- Bilson with rational expectations and Frankel- Dornbusch monetary model with rational expectations, Frankel-Dornbusch monetary model has better forecasting.}, Keywords = {Monetary Models, Random Walk Model, VECM, Forecasting Exchange Rate, Frankel-Dornbusch Model.}, volume = {1}, Number = {4}, pages = {5-24}, publisher = {Deputy of Economic Affairs Minstry of Economic Affairs and finance,tehran,iran}, url = {http://qjfep.ir/article-1-76-en.html}, eprint = {http://qjfep.ir/article-1-76-en.pdf}, journal = {Quarterly Journal of Fiscal and Economic Policies}, issn = {2345-3435}, eissn = {2345-3435}, year = {2014} } @article{ author = {Ebrahimi, Saj}, title = {Structure of Financial Market in Iran: Bank-Based or Market-Based}, abstract ={Funds in financial system have allocated through two important channels, bank and capital market. Each channel affects the real economy through its special properties. In this study, different viewpoint of bank based or market based financial system have been investigated. In addition, different aspects of Iran’s financial system structure have been analyzed and compared with financial structure of some 52 countries. Results showed that Iran’s structure of financial system is bank-based.}, Keywords = {Financial Market, Bank-Based, Market-Based, Capital Market, Bank.}, volume = {1}, Number = {4}, pages = {25-44}, publisher = {Deputy of Economic Affairs Minstry of Economic Affairs and finance,tehran,iran}, url = {http://qjfep.ir/article-1-127-en.html}, eprint = {http://qjfep.ir/article-1-127-en.pdf}, journal = {Quarterly Journal of Fiscal and Economic Policies}, issn = {2345-3435}, eissn = {2345-3435}, year = {2014} } @article{ author = {kazemi, azam and BEIK, MAJID and HADIAN, ELHAM and HAKIMI, FATEMEH}, title = {Investigating and Ranking the Factors Affecting the Foreign Investment Opportunities by TOPSIS}, abstract ={Many developing countries are facing shortage of capital, and financial resources. These countries, including Iran, need to attract foreign investment to compensate the lack of capital, and financial resources. The purpose of this study is to identify factors which affect the foreign investment attraction and rank them, using the TOPSIS method. The study population is 39 persons, including of university professors and experts in finance and economic officials of the executive government, industry and commerce, Economic and Finance Affairs and Yazd Chamber of Commerce. Data collection was done through questionnaire and the TOPSIS techniques has been used for data analysis and ranking the factors. The rating of 33 factors are respectively as follow, exchange rates, investment security, the expected rate of capital return, a supportive government policies against foreign investment, free movement of capital possibility and the existence of economic infrastructure such as roads, energy, ports and Internet.}, Keywords = {Investment, Foreign Direct Investment, Exchange Rates, Investment Security, Expected Rate of Capital Return, Economic Infrastructure.}, volume = {1}, Number = {4}, pages = {45-72}, publisher = {Deputy of Economic Affairs Minstry of Economic Affairs and finance,tehran,iran}, url = {http://qjfep.ir/article-1-81-en.html}, eprint = {http://qjfep.ir/article-1-81-en.pdf}, journal = {Quarterly Journal of Fiscal and Economic Policies}, issn = {2345-3435}, eissn = {2345-3435}, year = {2014} } @article{ author = {sani, bagher}, title = {Business Tax Income Breaks in Tehran Province}, abstract ={Collecting taxes has bean always a matter of great importance in the developing countries. If tax collecting has long breaks and you have an inflexible tax system in the country, inflation would reduce the real tax income. Due to the impact of inflation on real tax revenues (Tanzi hypothesis), using annual data during (1978-2011) the length of the business tax income breaks in Tehran Province and sensitiveness of the tax system to the changing of the prices general level have been studied in this dissertation. Vector Auto regressive (VAR) tools such as Johansson and Generalized moments Model (GMM) have been used to assess the traction and tax breaks. The results show the amount of tax breaks for businesses in Tehran province, is equivalent to 1.22 years, in other words a 14-month price elasticity of tax revenues equals to 0.52. There are limitations in the direct tax law, taxpayers’ delinquency and operational issues are the most important causes of delay and low stretch. So the inflation has reduced the actual business tax income in the Tehran province.}, Keywords = {Tanzi Effect, Business Tax Income, Tax Income Breaks, Price Elasticity of Tax Revenue.}, volume = {1}, Number = {4}, pages = {73-94}, publisher = {Deputy of Economic Affairs Minstry of Economic Affairs and finance,tehran,iran}, url = {http://qjfep.ir/article-1-56-en.html}, eprint = {http://qjfep.ir/article-1-56-en.pdf}, journal = {Quarterly Journal of Fiscal and Economic Policies}, issn = {2345-3435}, eissn = {2345-3435}, year = {2014} } @article{ author = {Nazari, Ali Reza and Fadaei, Im}, title = {Pathology of Iran’s Tax System}, abstract ={A pathological examination of Iran’s tax system in a framework guided by its three pillars indicates systematic flaws in all these pillars and furthermore argues the inefficiency of the tax system. Inefficiencies in rules and regulations include complexity and incomprehensiveness, lavish and inefficient tax exemptions, inefficient necessary enforcements in execution of law, and limited tax base. Tax collector organizations flaws include weaknesses in the information infrastructures, and consequently, its limited utilization, the absence of comprehensive data base of tax payers, lack of informational and statistical relations among executive bodies, organization-wide performance-based model of modularity and inefficient taxation processes. According to our investigations in the taxpayers’ side, there are flows such as inappropriate conditions of taxpayer compliance especially by the general public which is mainly rooted in flaws in other two pillars and social culture of them. Overall flaws of the three pillars of tax system had brought about challenges and issues for the system and had turned into the tax system specifications. Some of these challenges are lower tax to GDP ratio, lower share of tax in government income, lower share of tax in government current expenditure, higher costs of tax collection, inappropriate compliance with tax rules by the public, undiversified nature of tax bases and inappropriate tax revenue composition, traditional and outdated tax levy practices, lavish and inefficient tax exemptions, lags in tax collection and flawed tax information system.}, Keywords = {Pathology, Tax System, Tax to GDP Ratio, Share of Tax in Government Incomes.}, volume = {1}, Number = {4}, pages = {95-110}, publisher = {Deputy of Economic Affairs Minstry of Economic Affairs and finance,tehran,iran}, url = {http://qjfep.ir/article-1-60-en.html}, eprint = {http://qjfep.ir/article-1-60-en.pdf}, journal = {Quarterly Journal of Fiscal and Economic Policies}, issn = {2345-3435}, eissn = {2345-3435}, year = {2014} } @article{ author = {Zahedtalaban, Ali and Ashrafi, Yekta and khodaparast, Mehdi}, title = {The Critique of General Equilibrium Theory in Neoclassical Economics}, abstract ={The equilibrium amount and price are main debates of General Equilibrium Theory. One of main features of General Equilibrium Theory is that interactions of economic' units could only done through the price mechanism. General equilibrium theory has several failures, including the possibility of partial non-independent preferences, incomplete and non-transferable choices and non-convex demand and production. Moreover, the uniqueness of the equilibrium theories could only be obtained based on the assumptions which are unacceptable and quite limited. The General Equilibrium Theory has some other failures and limitations such as its limited operation only in the perfect competition setting, pretending to have real assumptions despite the fact that some of them are not, oversized abstraction and generalization, the static nature of its analysis, believing in legendary role and power for the price as the only exogenous variable of the theory. General equilibrium theory’s static nature is its main defect from the institutional school point of view. The institutionalisms believed that there is no definite and general statement for everywhere and everything, because understanding a phenomenon depends on its operation in the past and influence of various institutions, so from this perspective the knowledge is not very important. In view of new institutionalism in spite of positive transaction costs, the price mechanism alone would not lead to efficient allocation of resources and the role of institutions, especially legal regime and property rights in reducing transaction cost, in resource allocation and the need for interdisciplinary studies should be noted.}, Keywords = {Neoclassical Economics, General Equilibrium, Historical School, Institutionalism. }, volume = {1}, Number = {4}, pages = {111-130}, publisher = {Deputy of Economic Affairs Minstry of Economic Affairs and finance,tehran,iran}, url = {http://qjfep.ir/article-1-94-en.html}, eprint = {http://qjfep.ir/article-1-94-en.pdf}, journal = {Quarterly Journal of Fiscal and Economic Policies}, issn = {2345-3435}, eissn = {2345-3435}, year = {2014} } @article{ author = {}, title = {The Analysis of Exchange Rate Volatilities During (2010-2012)}, abstract ={Exchange rate volatility has adverse impact on economic variables and macroeconomic stability. For instance, great uncertainty in relative prices, investment horizon reduction, disrupting decision making processes and tarnishing central bank’s reputation are consequences of exchange rate volatility. Since mid-2010 non-official exchange rates increased and from that time on, there have been some volatility in exchange market. This study explains the origin and reasons of these volatilities and their continuity over time according to first generation of currency crisis. The results show that the imposed sanctions against Iran’s financial sector is the origin of volatilities and speculative attacks result from cumulative harmful liquidity are reason of their continuity. Moreover, the lack of efficient and deep exchange rate system intensified the impact of sanctions on exchange market.}, Keywords = {currency crisis, economic sanctions, exchange rate market management, competitive exchange rate market}, volume = {1}, Number = {4}, pages = {131-154}, publisher = {Deputy of Economic Affairs Minstry of Economic Affairs and finance,tehran,iran}, url = {http://qjfep.ir/article-1-65-en.html}, eprint = {http://qjfep.ir/article-1-65-en.pdf}, journal = {Quarterly Journal of Fiscal and Economic Policies}, issn = {2345-3435}, eissn = {2345-3435}, year = {2014} }